طراحی مدل توسعه اشتغال استان یزد با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مدیریت، موسسه آموزش عالی جهاددانشگاهی، یزد

2 دانشجو کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت صنعتی، موسسه آموزش عالی جهاددانشگاهی، یزد

چکیده

بررسی تحولات بازار نیروی کار در سطح استانهای کشور نشان می دهد که استان یزد یکی از استانهایی است که دارای بیشترین افزایش نرخ بیکاری در سالهای اخیر بوده است. به طوری که نرخ بیکاری این استان از 5.2% در سال 1375 به 9.4% در سال 1389 افزایش یافته است. در همین راستا در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شده است تا با طراحی مدل توسعه اشتغال استان یزد عوامل عمده موثر بر توسعه اشتغال شناسایی شده و با لحاظ نمودن ارتباطات متقابل آنها، وضعیت آینده اشتغال استان با توجه به شرایط مختلف جمعیت شناختی و محیطی پیش بینی گردد. اجرای مدل فوق بر مبنای اصول سیستم‌های پویا موجب ارائه سناریوهای متعددی در توسعه اشتغال می‌گردد که می‌تواند تصمیم گیرندگان کلان را در اتخاذ سیاست‌های مناسب یاری دهد. مدل مذکور بر اساس روش‌های پویایی شناسی سیستم‌ها طراحی شده است. به این منظور از نرم افزار VensimPLE اقدام به شبیه سازی توسعه اشتغال استان یزد با در نظر گرفتن اقتصاد بخش دولتی و خصوصی شده است. بازه زمانی 30 ساله از 1385 الی 1415 برای اجرا و سنجش روایی مدل مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. در پایان پس از تشریح وضعیت متصور برای آینده اشتغال استان با ارائه نتایج حاصل از اجرای مدل، پیشنهادهایی برای اتخاذ سیاست‌های مناسب در بهره گیری از فرصت‌های پیش رو افزایش توان مدیریت در مواجه با تهدید های آتی ارائه شده است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a Model for Employment Development in Yazd Province by the System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Fallah Tafti 1
  • Syed Ali Naghavi 2
  • Mir-Mohammad Asaadi Firuzabadi 1
1 Assistant Professor, Yazd Jahad Daneshgahi Higher Education Institute, Yazd, Iran
2 M.A Student in Industrial Engineering, Yazd Jahad Daneshgahi Higher Education Institute, Yazd, Iran
چکیده [English]

The inquiry about labor market evaluation in provinces of the country shows that Yazd is one of the provinces that have been faced with the more increasing unemployment rate in the recent years; as the unemployment rate in this province has increased from 5.2% in 1375 to 9.4% in 1389. In this research, we intend to identify the major effective factors on employment development by designing the Yazd province employment model. We also intend to anticipate the future of the province employment with regard to the reciprocal relations of the factors and with attention to various environmental and demographic circumstances. The implementation of this model offers several scenarios in employment development on the basis of system dynamics principles; that can help the major decision makers choose the appropriate policies. The mentioned model is designed on the basis of system dynamics methods. For this reason, the Yazd province employment development was simulated by “Vensim PLE” software concerning the public and private sectors. A period of 30 years from 1385 to 1415 was selected for implementation and test validity of the model. In the end, after explaining the conceived situation for the future of the province employment, with presenting results of the model, a number of suggestions will be given to help choose the appropriate policies in taking future opportunities and increasing the management power against future threats.  

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • employment development
  • System Dynamics
  • Population
  • Private Sector
  • Public sector
  • simulation

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