عنوان مقاله [English]
This paper aims to determine factors influencing on the buffer sizing based on Project Risks, which are usually subjective and qualitative. Because of the subjective feature, they can’t be calculated accurately and they are responsible for the project delays. In addition, because projects may enter a time of shortage, as well as inadequate resources, estimated time duration prolongs which in turn increases the project costs. On the other side, offering a conceptual model, this investigation aims to identify risks relationships and interactions. Fundamental and related risks were defined in the proposed model which is based on a conceptual model. The model also can be used to better buffer sizing and improve time duration and cost estimations. Interpretative Structural Modelling was used to develop the conceptual modeling and 27 experts in Oil and Gas Mega Projects were interviewed to gather the needed data to provide the model. Based on the conceptual model and simultaneous analysis, the problems caused by the complexity and low recognition of the technical issues of the project are the main factor that put managers and contractors in a situation to increase the level of buffers.
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