شناسایی بحران مالی بنگاه های اقتصادی بر اساس شاخص Z-Score Toffler و بررسی اثر چرخه عمر آنها بر معیارهای ریسک و عملکرد شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران(با تاکید بر الگوی دیکینسون 2005)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مدیریت دولتی(مالی)،واحد بجنورد،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،بجنورد،ایران.

2 گروه حسابداری و مدیریت ، واحد علی آباد کتول، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، علی آباد کتول، ایران

3 گروه اقتصاد،واحد بجنورد،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،بجنورد،ایران.

چکیده

بحران مالی و عدم توفیق مدیران شرکت ها، همواره برای محققان مشکلی در خور تامل بوده که به فکر یافتن روش هایی جهت پیش بینی آن و بهبود وضعیت بنگاه های اقتصادی باشند. پدیده ریسک نیز یکی از کلیدی‌ترین مشخصه‌های شکل‌گیری تصمیم در حوزه سرمایه‌گذاری، مالی و اقتصادی است. در این راستا ضرورت شناسایی بحران مالی و بررسی اثر متغیر های مختلف بر معیارهای ریسک و عملکرد برجسته می گردد. جامعه آماری پژوهش شرکت های بورس تهران در بازه زمانی 1394-1384 می باشد. در این پژوهش، نخست، شرکت های عضو نمونه آماری از روش حذفی انتخاب شدند. برای شناسایی شرکت های بحران زده از Z-score Toffler استفاده شد. سپس تفکیک شرکت ها با استفاده از الگوی جریانات نقدی دیکینسون(2005) صورت گرفته، پس از آن اثر دوره های مختلف چرخه عمر در هر مرحله بررسی شد. به منظور آزمون فرضیه های پژوهش از روش داده های ترکیبی و روش‌ رگرسیون لاجیت استفاده شده است. نرم‌افزار مورد استفاده در این تحقیق نرم‌افزار Eviews9 می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از آزمون 406 سال - شرکت نشان می دهد که تاثیر دوره های مختلف چرخه عمر بر مربوط بودن معیارهای ریسک و عملکرد تفاوت معنی داری دارند. تاثیر دوره های تولد و افول نسبت به سایر دوره ها بیشتر است. همچنین قدرت توضیحی فزاینده معیارهای ریسک در مراحل مختلف چرخه عمر تفاوت معنی داری دارند. بیشترین توان توضیحی مربوط به دوره افول می باشد. همچنین نتایج نشان می دهد تاثیر بحران مالی در دوره های مختلف چرخه عمر با یکدیگر تفاوت معنی داری دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identify the financial crisis of enterprises based on the Z – Score Toffler Index and investigate the impact of their life - cycle on risk and performance measures Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. (With emphasis on the 2005 Dickinson model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abdollah Amiri 1
  • parviz saeidi 2
  • farshid pourshahabi 3
1 Department of Management(Financial), Bojnourd Unit, Islamic Azad University, Bojnourd, Iran.
2 Department of Accounting and Management, Ali Abad katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ali Abad Katoul, Iran
3 Department of Economic , Bojnourd Unit, Islamic Azad University, Bojnourd, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The financial crisis and failure of corporate managers always have been a problem for researchers to think of finding ways to predict and improve the status of firms. The risk phenomenon is one of the most important characteristics of decision formation in the field of investment, financial markets and economic activities. The statistical population of the research is the listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2015. In this regard, the necessity of identifying the financial crisis and examining the effect of different variables on risk and performance measures are highlighted. In this research, first, the statistical sample companies were selected from the elimination method Z - Toffler was used to identify the crisis companies then, the separation of firms to stages were performed using the model of Dickinson cash flows (2005), followed by different periods of life cycle on risk and performance measures in each stage. In order to test the hypotheses, the combination of mixed data and Logit regression method has been used. The software used in this research is Eviews9. The results of the 406 Samples test show that the impact of different periods of life cycle on risk and performance measures has significant differences with one another. The effects of birth and decay periods are higher than those of other periods. Also, the increasing explanatory power of risk measures in different stages of life cycle are significantly different. The maximum explanatory power is related to the decline period

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Return
  • financial crisis
  • Life Cycle
  • Risk
  • Z – Toffler

مراجع

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فصلنامه مدیریت صنعتی

دوره 14، شماره 49
پاییز 1398
صفحه 95-114

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 27 تیر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 04 آذر 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 آذر 1398

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