مطالعه و تحلیل متغیرهای جمعیتی تأثیر گذار بر نسبت پشتیبانی در صندوق بازنشستگی تأمین اجتماعی ایران با استفاده از پویایی‌های سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 رئیس اداره آمار و فناوری اطلاعات معاونت بیمه ای - سازمان تامین اجتماعی

2 استادیار دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب ، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب، تهران ، ایران

چکیده

ارزیابی و اصلاح سیستمهای بازنشستگی از جمله مسائل پیچیده‌ای میباشند که به دلیل تعدد متغیرهای تاثیرگذار و تغییر متغیرها در افقهای زمانی بلندمدت، نمیتوان آنها را به سادگی بررسی و تحلیل نمود. هدف این مقاله مطالعه و تحلیل متغیرهای جمعیتی بر نسبت پشتیبانی (تعداد بیمه شدگان بر تعداد مستمری بگیران) در سازمان تأمین اجتماعی است. این نسبت تا حدودی نسبت ورودی به خروجی صندوق را نمایش داده و بر اساس آن میتوان با توجه به میزان حق بیمه های جاری و مبالغ مستمری فشار موجود بر صندوق را تخمین زد. در این مقاله با استفاده از اطلاعات و آمارهای سازمان مذکور و مرکز آمار ایران در سالهای 98-95، مدلی بر پایه پویایی های سیستم طراحی و بعد از تست و اعتبارسنجی مدل، سیاستهای مختلف بررسی و تحلیل گردیدند. یافته ها نشان می دهند تا سال 1412 جمعیت سالمند کشور دو برابر و جمعیت سن کار 12درصد رشد خواهد داشت. همچنین نسبت پشتیبانی صندوق ظرف همان مدت به عدد 2.19 خواهد رسید. مشارکت مشاغل غیر رسمی، اشتغال جوانان، مشارکت اقتصادی زنان و نرخ باروری مهمترین متغیرهای تاثیرگذار جمعیتی می باشند که با اعمال سیاستها و برنامه ریزی های مناسب میتوانند میزان نسبت پشتیبانی را به ترتیب به میزان 3، 1/2 ، 1/4 و 0/5 واحد افزایش دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Studying and Analyzing Influential Demographic Variables on Support Ratio in Iranian Social Security Pension Fund Using System Dynamics

نویسندگان [English]

  • zahra karimian sichani 1
  • mohammad hassan cheraghali 2
  • ali dehghani 3
1 Head of Statistics and Information Technology Department of Insurance Deputy - Social Security Organization
2 Assistant Prof., Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Prof., Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch
چکیده [English]

Evaluation and reform of pension systems are among the complex issues that due to the multiplicity of variables affecting each other and significant changes in the variables in the long term horizons, they can not be easily studied and analyzed. The purpose of this article is to study and analyze demographic variables on the support ratio(Ratio of insured to pensioners ) in Iran’s Social Security Pension Fund. This shows to some extent the ratio of input to output of the fund, and based on it, the pressure on the fund can be estimated according to the amount of current insurance premiums and pension amounts. In this article, using information and statistics of mentioned fund and Iran Statistics Center in the years from 2016 to 2018, a model based on system dynamics was designed and By testing the model under certain conditions, reproducing past behavior and examining different policies, the model was validated. By 2033, the country's elderly population will double, while the working age population will grow by nearly 12 percent. These changes will affect the demographic structure, Also, according to the forecast, if the current conditions are maintained, the support ratio of the Social Security Fund will reach 2.19 by 2033. Informal (non-salaried) job participation, unemployed youth employment, women's economic participation and fertility rate are the most important influential population variables that can increase the support ratio to 3, 1/2, 1/4 0/5 units respectively ،if appropriate policies and planning are implemented.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • pension fund
  • Population Variables
  • Support Ratio
  • System Dynamics
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