طراحی مدل علّی مدیریت مصرف آب با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی FDelphi-FDANP (مورد مطالعه شرکت آب و فاضلاب مازندران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت صنعتی،دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد بابل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بابل، ایران

2 استادیار،گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد بابل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بابل، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد بابل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بابل، ایران

چکیده

محدودیت های منابع آب آشامیدنی، خشک و کم آب بودن کشور، افزایش جمعیت و تقاضا، مصرف نادرست آب طی دهه های اخیر و توزیع نامتوازن زمانی و مکانی منابع آب موضوع بسیار حائز اهمیت است. نیاز به تغییر در شیوه های مدیریت تقاضای آب شرب و پیش بینی تقاضاهای جدید از طریق تحلیل عوامل موثر بر مصرف آب را بیشتر کرده است. هدف مقاله حاضر ارایه الگو جهت اولویت بندی راهبردهای مدیریت مصرف آب در بخش خانگی می باشد. اطلاعات از طریق مطالعه و بررسی کتابخانه ای در این حوزه و مصاحبه با خبرگان صنعت آب گردآوری شد. سپس با نمونه گیری گلوله برفی به تشکیل پانل دلفی با رویکردی فازی، عواملی که از جامعیت بیشتری برخوردار بودند شناسایی شد که در نهایت خبرگان بر 7 معیار اصلی اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی، فنی و مهندسی، قانونی و مدیریتی، مکانی و زمانی با 26 زیر معیار تاثیرگذار اتفاق نظر داشتند. برای بررسی درجه اهمیت و ارتباط بین عوامل و اولویت بندی زیرمعیارها با استفاده از تکنیک DANP فازی اقدام شد. نتایج نشان داد که عوامل اصلی فنی و مهندسی با درجه اهمیت (144/0)، زمان (790/0) و فرهنگی(040/0) به عنوان عامل اثرگذار تاثیر مهمی در مصرف آب داشته است و همچنین زیرمعیارهای اثرگذار شامل تنوع بخشی در عرضه، درآمد سرانه، جمعیت، علایق مصرف کننده، تعرفه و قیمت گذاری، مدت حضور در منزل، انگیزه مصرف، سطح زیر بنا، شاغل بودن زنان، فشار شبکه و برنامه های اصلاح الگوی مصرف می باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a Causal Model of Water Consumption Management Using the FDelphi-FDANP Hybrid Approach (Case Study of Mazandaran Water & Wastewater company)

نویسندگان [English]

  • habibollah dadashi 1
  • ali Sorayaei 2
  • seyed ali Nabavi Chashmi 3
1 Ph.D. Candidatein Industrial Management, College of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Babol Branch, Babol, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, College of Humanities, Babol Branch, Islamic Azad University, Babol, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Management, College of Humanities, Babol Branch, Islamic Azad University, Babol, Iran
چکیده [English]

Limitations of drinking water resources, the country's dry and water shortage, population growth and demand, improper water consumption in recent decades and unbalanced temporal and spatial distribution of water resources are very important. The need to change the methods of managing drinking water demand and anticipate new demands has increased by analyzing the Effective factors water consumption. The purpose of this article is to provide a model for prioritizing water consumption management strategies in the home sector. Information was collected through library research in this field and interviews with water industry experts. Then, by sampling snowballs to form a Delphi panel with a fuzzy approach, the factors that were more comprehensive were identified that finally They agreed 7 main factors economic, social, cultural, technical and engineering, legal and managerial, Place and Time with 26 effective sub-criteria. To evaluate the degree of importance and relationship between factors and prioritization of sub-criteria using fuzzy DANP technique. The results showed that the main factor technical and engineering factors with the degree of importance (0.144), time (0.790) and cultural (0.040) as an effective have a significant impact on water consumption and the effective sub-criteria are diversification in supply, per capita income, population, consumer interests, tariffs and pricing, length of stay at home, consumption motivation, infrastructure level, female employment, network pressure and modify consumption patterns programs.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Demand Management
  • water consumption
  • Fuzzy DANP
  • fuzzy Delphi
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